The UBS bank of Switzerland runs a mathematical model that calculates in detail the outcome of each World Cup tournament, and apparently the World Cup trophy for 2010 belongs to Brazil with a 22% chance. World Cup favourites Spain and England have just 4% chance of winning the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, while Portugal is not even mentioned at all in the announcement.

“Football fans around the world feel that the result of our system is unfair to Spain and England, but usually these two teams play way below their means in almost every World Cup to date. During the last three tournaments both Spain and England were again considered as favourites, but failed to reach even the quarter-finals. Brazil is the team that has the biggest chance in South Africa this summer,” says the representative of the UBS bank.

According to the formula host country South Africa has the biggest chance to advance to the round of 16 with 78%, probably because all World Cup host nations in the history of the competition have managed to do so. The country that has the worst chance of advancing to the second round is Paraguay with just 29%.

The same mathematical model was applied for the previous World Cup competition in 2006, and was successful in predicting that Italy would be the winner. For the second round of the 2006 World Cup UBS correctly predicted 13 out of the 16 teams, and later on 6 out of 8 and 2 out of 4 teams for the quarter and semi finals respectively.

Below are the complete results of the model:

- Brazil (22%)
- Germany (18%)
- Italy (13%)
- The Netherlands (8%)
- France (6%)
- Argentina (5%)
- Spain (4%)
- England (4%)

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